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欧洲经济学家：美联储激进加息令欧洲经济雪上加霜

2024-07-07 18:26:56 | 刘祖德 | 49条留言 | 27834 次浏览

新华社布鲁塞尔10月3日电（记者康逸）针对今年以来美国联邦储备委员会采取的持续激进加息举措，多名欧洲经济学家日前接受新华社记者采访时表示，能源供应紧张、通胀水平居高不下等已经让欧洲经济承压，美联储激进加息政策将从资本流动、汇率和通胀三方面加剧欧洲困境。

集团首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利告诉记者，美联储为控制通胀而不计代价地持续激进加息，导致美国经济衰退风险上升。但与美国相比，陷入能源危机和胀泥潭的欧洲经济前景更加黯淡。

奈特利表示，由于能源进口成本大涨，此前多年一直保持贸易顺差的欧盟今年已持续出现贸易逆差。在美联储持续大幅加息、欧洲经济面临更大下行压力、欧盟贸易结构发生变化等诸多因素共同作用下，美元汇率得到提振，并对欧美之间的资本流动产生重大影响。

欧洲政策研究中心研究员雅克·佩尔克曼斯指出，随着美联储持续加息，欧洲央行将被迫跟随加息。但从短期来看，寻求短期利息回报的资金将抛售欧元、买入美元，令欧元汇率承压。

另一家智库欧洲政策中心的政策分析师菲利普·劳斯贝格认为，美联储加息力度比欧洲央行大得多，这可能导致欧元对美元汇率进一步下跌。美欧利差扩大令美元资产更具吸引力，将继续推动投资者抛售欧元资产、增持美元资产，进而导致欧元进一步贬值。

劳斯贝格还表示，随着美元走强，欧盟进口商品，尤其是进口量巨大、以美元计价的关键原材料价格将变得更高，这可能进一步推升欧盟通胀水平。作为应对举措，欧洲央行或将被迫进一步提高利率水平，进而导致融资条件收紧。尽管当前欧盟银行系统抗风险能力仍然较强，但如果企业破产和债务违约大幅增加，整个金融系统将面临巨大风险。

欧洲政策研究中心董事丹尼尔·格罗斯表示，如果欧洲央行进一步采取紧缩政策，同时乌克兰危机进一步升级，那将给欧洲带来更多金融动荡。（完）

                   

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